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Since the election of Mohamed Muizzu as president, Maldives has undoubtedly been moving away from India and closer to China. At the end of Muizzu's visit, the China-Maldives joint statement bears testimony to their bonhomie. The trip saw barely veiled references to India's “bullying”.
Recently the visit of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Lakshadweep ignited controversy, further straining the already tense relations between India and the Maldives. The controversy began when three deputy ministers in the Ministry of Youth Affairs from Maldives commented negatively about India and the PM following his recent visit to Lakshadweep.
The comments made by the ministers have sparked criticism in India, with numerous celebrities encouraging people to consider exploring domestic tourist destinations rather than traveling to the Maldives.
Muizzu's predecessor, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, was considered pro-India and the current president ran on an “India out” campaign. The withdrawal of Indian troops from the country was a poll promise, more political than strategic— India reportedly has less than 90 soldiers in Maldives.
Solih's predecessor, Abdulla Yameen, tilted towards Beijing. The fact that India plays a significant role in Maldivian politics should not be surprising.
Why the India-Maldives Relationship is Significant?
Strategic Significance:
Maldives’ proximity to the west coast of India and its situation at the hub of commercial sea lanes running through the Indian Ocean.
India has been First Responder to the Maldives, be it the 1988 coup attempt, 2004 Tsunami, the water crisis in Malé in Dec 2014, India’s swift dispatch of 30,000 doses of measles vaccine in Jan 2020 or comprehensive assistance during the Covid-19.
India acts as a Net Security Provider. Both nations are key players in maintaining the safety and security of the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). Defense cooperation extends to the areas of Joint Exercises.
Economic and Trade Engagements:
India is amongst the largest sources of visitors to the Maldives, which is heavily dependent on tourism to run its economy. In 2023, India topped the chart in sending the largest number of tourists to the Maldives (2,09,198), with around 11.8 % market share.
India emerged as Maldives’ 2nd largest trade partner in 2022.
A Bilateral USD Currency Swap Agreement between RBI and Maldives Monetary Authority was signed on 22nd July 2019.
India has played a significant role in implementing Development and Capacity building projects in Maldives, be it industries, healthcare or education.
Cultural Connectivity:
India and Maldives share ethnic, linguistic, cultural, and religious links steeped in antiquity. According to anthropologists, the origins of Dhivehi (the Maldivian language) harken back to Sanskrit and Pali.
The Indian expatriate community in the Maldives has an approximate strength of 27,000. The majority of the expatriate teachers in Maldives are Indian nationals.
What are the Key Issues in the India- Maldives Relationship?
The Ongoing Lakshadweep Issue:
The controversy ensued when three deputy ministers from the Maldives made derogatory comments about India and the Prime Minister following his recent visit to Lakshadweep.
They criticized the Indian Prime Minister's visit, alleging that it was intended to pose a challenge to Maldivian tourism.
The Indian government raised the issue with Maldives, after which the Maldives government suspended the ministers.
This controversy has led many Indians to cancel their holiday bookings in Maldives.
The India Out Campaign in Maldives:
The 'India Out' initiative seeks to amplify animosity by instilling skepticism regarding India's investments in the Maldives, the defense partnerships between the two nations, and India's security provisions in the region.
The recently elected Maldivian government opposes the former administration's 'India First' policy to the extent that the withdrawal of Indian troops was included in Muizzu's election manifesto.
Sovereignty and Security Dilemma :
The democratic system in the Maldives is still in its early stages, grappling with regional socio-political instability influenced by major global players.
The opposition in Maldives strongly feels that the Indian military presence in the Maldives is a threat to the country’s national security and sovereignty.
Conversely, the past government has consistently emphasized that the India Out campaign threatens the country's national security.
Revocation of Hydrographic Survey Agreement:
It is worth noting that hydrographic data inherently has a dual nature in that the information collected from the seas can be used for civilian and military purposes.
Maldives has apprehensions about India’s hydrographic activity being a form of intelligence collection.
Maldives' recent decision to revoke the agreement with India for joint hydrographic surveys in its waters causing concern in Indian strategic circles.
The China Factor in the Indian Ocean Region :
The Maldives has emerged as an important ‘pearl’ in China’s “String of Pearls” construct in South Asia.
Maldives has massive Chinese investment and became a participant in China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
The India-Maldives relationship suffered a setback when Maldives entered into a Free-Trade Agreement (FTA) with China in 2017.
There are speculation about a Chinese plan to develop a naval base in the Maldives, with past proposals indicating concerns about potential military applications.
China's oceanographic surveys in the waters of amicable South Asian nations pose potential conflict points due to the presence of Indian hydrographic ships in the region.
A coordinated synergy between India's 'Neighbourhood First' policy and the Maldives' 'India First' approach is essential for strengthening a mutually beneficial partnership.
- References and Excerpts from Drishti IAS
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Very Informative on Inadia-Maldives Relationship.